Echtzeitnachrichten: Live Forex-Handel News

r/CryptoMarkets

FOREX community for cryptocurrencies. Tags: mt gox bitcoin, long term potential, open source exchange, low inflation rate, demand and price, technical analysis, fundamentals, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Augur, token, volume, oscillator, RSI, stochastic, trend, sentiment, strategy, scam, coin, coinmarketcap, altcoin, Peercoin, script, blockchain, PoW, PoS, Proof of Work,
[link]

r/CryptoMarkets testing subreddit.

[link]

Some trading wisdom, tools and information I picked up along the way that helped me be a better trader. Maybe it can help you too.

Its a bit lengthy and I tried to condense it as much as I can. So take everything at a high level as each subject is has a lot more depth but fundamentally if you distill it down its just taking simple things and applying your experience using them to add nuance and better deploy them.
There are exceptions to everything that you will learn with experience or have already learned. If you know something extra or something to add to it to implement it better or more accurately. Then great! However, my intention of this post is just a high level overview. Trading can be far too nuanced to go into in this post and would take forever to type up every exception (not to mention the traders individual personality). If you take the general information as a starting point, hopefully you will learn the edge cases long the way and learn how to use the more effectively if you end up using them. I apologize in advice for any errors or typos.
Introduction After reflecting on my fun (cough) trading journey that was more akin to rolling around on broken glass and wondering if brown glass will help me predict market direction better than green glass. Buying a $100 indicator at 2 am when I was acting a fool, looking at it and going at and going "This is a piece of lagging crap, I miss out on a large part of the fundamental move and never using it for even one trade". All while struggling with massive over trading and bad habits because I would get bored watching a single well placed trade on fold for the day. Also, I wanted to get rich quick.
On top all of that I had a terminal Stage 4 case of FOMO on every time the price would move up and then down then back up. Just think about all those extra pips I could have trading both directions as it moves across the chart! I can just sell right when it goes down, then buy right before it goes up again. Its so easy right? Well, turns out it was not as easy as I thought and I lost a fair chunk of change and hit my head against the wall a lot until it clicked. Which is how I came up with a mixed bag of things that I now call "Trade the Trade" which helped support how I wanted to trade so I can still trade intra day price action like a rabid money without throwing away all my bananas.
Why Make This Post? - Core Topic of Discussion I wish to share a concept I came up with that helped me become a reliable trader. Support the weakness of how I like to trade. Also, explaining what I do helps reinforce my understanding of the information I share as I have to put words to it and not just use internalized processes. I came up with a method that helped me get my head straight when trading intra day.
I call it "Trade the Trade" as I am making mini trades inside of a trade setup I make from analysis on a higher timeframe that would take multiple days to unfold or longer. I will share information, principles, techniques I used and learned from others I talked to on the internet (mixed bag of folks from armatures to professionals, and random internet people) that helped me form a trading style that worked for me. Even people who are not good at trading can say something that might make it click in your head so I would absorbed all the information I could get.I will share the details of how I approach the methodology and the tools in my trading belt that I picked up by filtering through many tools, indicators strategies and witchcraft. Hopefully you read something that ends up helping you be a better trader. I learned a lot from people who make community posts so I wanted to give back now that I got my ducks in a row.
General Trading Advice If your struggling finding your own trading style, fixing weakness's in it, getting started, being reliably profitable or have no framework to build yourself higher with, hopefully you can use the below advice to help provide some direction or clarity to moving forward to be a better trader.
  1. KEEP IT SIMPLE. Do not throw a million things on your chart from the get go or over analyzing what the market is doing while trying to learn the basics. Tons of stuff on your chart can actually slow your learning by distracting your focus on all your bells and whistles and not the price action.
  2. PRICE ACTION. Learn how to read price action. Not just the common formations, but larger groups of bars that form the market structure. Those formations carry more weight the higher the time frame they form on. If struggle to understand what is going on or what your looking at, move to a higher time frame.
  3. INDICATORS. If you do use them you should try to understand how every indicator you use calculates its values. Many indicators are lagging indicators, understanding how it calculates the values can help you learn how to identify the market structure before the indicator would trigger a signal . This will help you understand why the signal is a lagged signal. If you understand that you can easily learn to look at the price action right before the signal and learn to watch for that price action on top of it almost trigging a signal so you can get in at a better position and assume less downside risk. I recommend using no more than 1-2 indicators for simplicity, but your free to use as many as you think you think you need or works for your strategy/trading style.
  4. PSYCOLOGY. First, FOMO is real, don't feed the beast. When you trade you should always have an entry and exit. If you miss your entry do not chase it, wait for a new entry. At its core trading is gambling and your looking for an edge against the house (the other market participants). With that in mind, treat as such. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. If you are afraid to lose it will negatively effect your trade decisions. Finally, be honest with your self and bad trading happens. No one is going to play trade cop and keep you in line, that's your job.
  5. TRADE DECISION MARKING: Before you enter any trade you should have an entry and exit area. As you learn price action you will get better entries and better exits. Use a larger zone and stop loss at the start while learning. Then you can tighten it up as you gain experience. If you do not have a area you wish to exit, or you are entering because "the markets looking like its gonna go up". Do not enter the trade. Have a reason for everything you do, if you cannot logically explain why then you probably should not be doing it.
  6. ROBOTS/ALGOS: Loved by some, hated by many who lost it all to one, and surrounded by scams on the internet. If you make your own, find a legit one that works and paid for it or lost it all on a crappy one, more power to ya. I do not use robots because I do not like having a robot in control of my money. There is too many edge cases for me to be ok with it.However, the best piece of advice about algos was that the guy had a algo/robot for each market condition (trending/ranging) and would make personalized versions of each for currency pairs as each one has its own personality and can make the same type of movement along side another currency pair but the price action can look way different or the move can be lagged or leading. So whenever he does his own analysis and he sees a trend, he turns the trend trading robot on. If the trend stops, and it starts to range he turns the range trading robot on. He uses robots to trade the market types that he is bad at trading. For example, I suck at trend trading because I just suck at sitting on my hands and letting my trade do its thing.

Trade the Trade - The Methodology

Base Principles These are the base principles I use behind "Trade the Trade". Its called that because you are technically trading inside your larger high time frame trade as it hopefully goes as you have analyzed with the trade setup. It allows you to scratch that intraday trading itch, while not being blind to the bigger market at play. It can help make sense of why the price respects, rejects or flat out ignores support/resistance/pivots.
  1. Trade Setup: Find a trade setup using high level time frames (daily, 4hr, or 1hr time frames). The trade setup will be used as a base for starting to figure out a bias for the markets direction for that day.
  2. Indicator Data: Check any indicators you use (I use Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index) for any useful information on higher timeframes.
  3. Support Resistance: See if any support/resistance/pivot points are in currently being tested/resisted by the price. Also check for any that are within reach so they might become in play through out the day throughout the day (which can influence your bias at least until the price reaches it if it was already moving that direction from previous days/weeks price action).
  4. Currency Strength/Weakness: I use the TradeVision currency strength/weakness dashboard to see if the strength/weakness supports the narrative of my trade and as an early indicator when to keep a closer eye for signs of the price reversing.Without the tool, the same concept can be someone accomplished with fundamentals and checking for higher level trends and checking cross currency pairs for trends as well to indicate strength/weakness, ranging (and where it is in that range) or try to get some general bias from a higher level chart that may help you out. However, it wont help you intra day unless your monitoring the currency's index or a bunch of charts related to the currency.
  5. Watch For Trading Opportunities: Personally I make a mental short list and alerts on TradingView of currency pairs that are close to key levels and so I get a notification if it reaches there so I can check it out. I am not against trading both directions, I just try to trade my bias before the market tries to commit to a direction. Then if I get out of that trade I will scalp against the trend of the day and hold trades longer that are with it.Then when you see a opportunity assume the directional bias you made up earlier (unless the market solidly confirms with price action the direction while waiting for an entry) by trying to look for additional confirmation via indicators, price action on support/resistances etc on the low level time frame or higher level ones like hourly/4hr as the day goes on when the price reaches key areas or makes new market structures to get a good spot to enter a trade in the direction of your bias.Then enter your trade and use the market structures to determine how much of a stop you need. Once your in the trade just monitor it and watch the price action/indicators/tools you use to see if its at risk of going against you. If you really believe the market wont reach your TP and looks like its going to turn against you, then close the trade. Don't just hold on to it for principle and let it draw down on principle or the hope it does not hit your stop loss.
  6. Trade Duration Hold your trades as long or little as you want that fits your personality and trading style/trade analysis. Personally I do not hold trades past the end of the day (I do in some cases when a strong trend folds) and I do not hold trades over the weekends. My TP targets are always places I think it can reach within the day. Typically I try to be flat before I sleep and trade intra day price movements only. Just depends on the higher level outlook, I have to get in at really good prices for me to want to hold a trade and it has to be going strong. Then I will set a slightly aggressive stop on it before I leave. I do know several people that swing trade and hold trades for a long period of time. That is just not a trading style that works for me.
Enhance Your Success Rate Below is information I picked up over the years that helped me enhance my success rate with not only guessing intra day market bias (even if it has not broken into the trend for the day yet (aka pre London open when the end of Asia likes to act funny sometimes), but also with trading price action intra day.
People always say "When you enter a trade have an entry and exits. I am of the belief that most people do not have problem with the entry, its the exit. They either hold too long, or don't hold long enough. With the below tools, drawings, or instruments, hopefully you can increase your individual probability of a successful trade.
**P.S.*\* Your mileage will vary depending on your ability to correctly draw, implement and interpret the below items. They take time and practice to implement with a high degree of proficiency. If you have any questions about how to do that with anything listed, comment below and I will reply as I can. I don't want to answer the same question a million times in a pm.
Tools and Methods Used This is just a high level overview of what I use. Each one of the actions I could go way more in-depth on but I would be here for a week typing something up of I did that. So take the information as a base level understanding of how I use the method or tool. There is always nuance and edge cases that you learn from experience.
Conclusion
I use the above tools/indicators/resources/philosophy's to trade intra day price action that sometimes ends up as noise in the grand scheme of the markets movement.use that method until the price action for the day proves the bias assumption wrong. Also you can couple that with things like Stoch RSI + Relative Vigor Index to find divergences which can increase the probability of your targeted guesses.

Trade Example from Yesterday This is an example of a trade I took today and why I took it. I used the following core areas to make my trade decision.
It may seem like a lot of stuff to process on the fly while trying to figure out live price action but, for the fundamental bias for a pair should already baked in your mindset for any currency pair you trade. For the currency strength/weakness I stare at the dashboard 12-15 hours a day so I am always trying to keep a pulse on what's going or shifts so that's not really a factor when I want to enter as I would not look to enter if I felt the market was shifting against me. Then the higher timeframe analysis had already happened when I woke up, so it was a game of "Stare at the 5 min chart until the price does something interesting"
Trade Example: Today , I went long EUUSD long bias when I first looked at the chart after waking up around 9-10pm Eastern. Fortunately, the first large drop had already happened so I had a easy baseline price movement to work with. I then used tool for currency strength/weakness monitoring, Pivot Points, and bearish divergence detected using Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index.
I first noticed Bearish Divergence on the 1hr time frame using the Stochastic RSI and got confirmation intra day on the 5 min time frame with the Relative Vigor Index. I ended up buying the second mini dip around midnight Eastern because it was already dancing along the pivot point that the price had been dancing along since the big drop below the pivot point and dipped below it and then shortly closed back above it. I put a stop loss below the first large dip. With a TP goal of the middle point pivot line
Then I waited for confirmation or invalidation of my trade. I ended up getting confirmation with Bearish Divergence from the second large dip so I tightened up my stop to below that smaller drip and waited for the London open. Not only was it not a lower low, I could see the divergence with the Relative Vigor Index.
It then ran into London and kept going with tons of momentum. Blew past my TP target so I let it run to see where the momentum stopped. Ended up TP'ing at the Pivot Point support/resistance above the middle pivot line.
Random Note: The Asian session has its own unique price action characteristics that happen regularly enough that you can easily trade them when they happen with high degrees of success. It takes time to learn them all and confidently trade them as its happening. If you trade Asia you should learn to recognize them as they can fake you out if you do not understand what's going on.

TL;DR At the end of the day there is no magic solution that just works. You have to find out what works for you and then what people say works for them. Test it out and see if it works for you or if you can adapt it to work for you. If it does not work or your just not interested then ignore it.
At the end of the day, you have to use your brain to make correct trading decisions. Blindly following indicators may work sometimes in certain market conditions, but trading with information you don't understand can burn you just as easily as help you. Its like playing with fire. So, get out there and grind it out. It will either click or it wont. Not everyone has the mindset or is capable of changing to be a successful trader. Trading is gambling, you do all this work to get a edge on the house. Trading without the edge or an edge you understand how to use will only leave your broker happy in the end.
submitted by marcusrider to Forex [link] [comments]

Dollar rocks on the waves. Analysis as of 28.10.2020

Dollar rocks on the waves. Analysis as of 28.10.2020

Weekly fundamental forecast for the dollar

The fear of coronavirus makes US stock market bulls retreat, which results in the US dollar’s consolidation. The number of new cases hits a record high in the USA. The US also reported record high hospitalization rates since 19 August, while France recorded the highest daily death toll since April. Emmanuel Macron is rumored to introduce another lockdown. That dropped the EURUSD quotes below the bottom of figure 18. The fall might have been deeper if not for expectations of the Democrats’ victory on 3 November.
According to 75% of 59 Reuters experts, a blue wave will be the best option for the US economy. It will help the fiscal stimulus package worth $1.8 trillion pass easily through Congress. Experts forecast that the US GDP will draw down 4% in 2020 and expand 3.7% and 2.9% in 2021-2022, respectively.

Reuters survey: What will support the US economy?

Source: Reuters.
A blue wave and post-election reduction in political uncertainty suggest that volatility may fall. That’s good news for S&P 500 and bad news for the greenback. The world’s largest financial manager BlackRock, which manages assets worth $7.3 trillion, thinks that the USD will be moderately weak for 1-3 years. The giant joints USD bulls, such as Goldman Sachs and UBS. Its position explains why hedge funds are selling out dollars in the forward market.

USD index and speculative positions in USD


Source: Bloomberg.
Uncertainty feeds the dollar. The markets seem to know already the presidential election’s results. The election factor excluded, the second wave may drop EURUSD quotes significantly. We may face the global economy’s double recession and another collapse of the S&P 500 and the greenback’s hike like it was in March. All the previous achievements will be canceled. Few are those who will remember the housing prices’ growth in the USA and the fifth consecutive month of increase in US durable goods orders.

US durable goods orders


Source: Bloomberg.
At first sight, the second pandemic wave must push the ECB to active actions as early as at the 29 October meeting. However, QE expansion won’t solve the COVID-19 issue. European banks stop crediting, fearing bad debt growth. So, Christine Lagarde’s main task is to calm down financial markets. A hint about an additional stimulus in December may help with that task.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

Thus, the pandemic returned to Forex’s forefront and consolidated the USD. However, I think it’s still possible to exploit the factor of Joe Biden’s victory in the short term. The EURUSD’s retracement from support at 1.1745 or return to 1.1815 and higher may be a signal to open long positions for impatient and adventurous traders.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-rocks-on-the-waves-analysis-as-of-28102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

THROW YOUR FD's in FDS

Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment
Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists
If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now:
Their latest 8k filing reported the following:
Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions.
Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region
Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019.
Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results.
The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020.
FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders.
As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here.
It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down:
https://preview.redd.it/frmtdk8e9hk51.png?width=276&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c0ff12539e0b2f9dbfda13d0565c5ce2b6f8f1a

https://preview.redd.it/6axdb6lh9hk51.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=9af1673272a5a2d8df28f60f4707e948a00e5ff1
FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with.
Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp
https://preview.redd.it/yo71y6qj9hk51.png?width=355&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9414bdaa03c06114ca052304a26fae2773c3e45

FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015:

https://preview.redd.it/oxaa1wel9hk51.png?width=443&format=png&auto=webp&s=13d60d2518980360c403364f7150392ab83d07d7
So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33%
https://preview.redd.it/e4trju3p9hk51.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6bee15f836c47e73121054ec60459f147d353e

EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded.
https://preview.redd.it/yl7f58tr9hk51.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=68906b9ecbcf6d886393c4ff40f81bdecab9e9fd

P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy.

https://preview.redd.it/4mqw3t4t9hk51.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d719f4913883b044c4150f11b8732e14797b6d
Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016
https://preview.redd.it/lt34avzu9hk51.png?width=441&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3742ed87cd1c2ccb7a3d3ee71ae8c7007313b2b

Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself.
https://preview.redd.it/fliirmpx9hk51.png?width=370&format=png&auto=webp&s=1216eddeadb4f84c8f4f48692a2f962ba2f1e848

SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices
I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful.
Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in.
Calls have shitty greeks, but if you're ballsy October 450s LOL, I'm holding shares
I’d say it’s a great long term investment, and it should at least be on your watchlist.
submitted by WannabeStonks69 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

eToro: impressions, doubts and (ignored) lessons from copy trading

(no promotional content, no affiliate links)
Hi,
exactly four years ago, I started copying eToro investors / traders that I selected using the broker's built-in search engine (profitable in last two years, already being copied by others), followed by manual filtering, to take into account fluctuations in yearly returns, composition of their portfolios etc. With that, I got a list of 10 people whom I started to copy on a demo account:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u52f0XHfr-LauIscKcFDYF0yGTTUr6VY/view?usp=sharing
In the screenshot you can see that in case of the first two of them the amount invested was $10,000, while for the rest it was just $100. This is because I started copying the first two a couple of weeks earlier; eventually I changed this into $100 the same day I made the screenshot and this is when my calculations start - so this thing is irrelevant, I just cannot travel in time to make another screenshot.
What I did after that?
Well, within the next six weeks my profits oscillated between -$11 and +$9.50 (the biggest profit was on Nov 9, a day after US presidential elections). I found this "boring" and discontinued experimenting with copy trading.
Today I looked back at those ten traders. Here is what I found. Firstly, seven of them are not with eToro anymore; investorNo1, Simple-Stock-Mkt, tradingrelax, 4exPirate, primit, Gallojack, xjurokx. The other three traders are:
My observations and thoughts are as follows:
  1. Seven out of ten traders are not with eToro anymore, which makes me wonder why. I have no proof but my guess is they simply performed poorly, lost their copiers and closed their accounts. This is already alarming but what if they opened another account? Or, even worse, multiple accounts? They could be investing small money and try different risky approaches, hoping that at least one account will turn out profitable in the long turn, attracting potential copiers. (I'm not claiming that those 7 particular traders did this, it's just my general suspicion regarding some of eToro traders)
  2. I'm unable to calculate what would be my profit if I never stopped copying them, because I cannot check at what day and with what profit those seven traders left eToro. I'm guessing this would be an immense loss. On the other hand, considering the three traders who are still with eToro, I would lose more than a quarter of my assets!
What now?
I must be a quite adventurous person or at least an incorrigible optimist, because a month ago (exactly on Aug 26th) I started copying three traders with real money. Here is who they are.
rubymza (Heloise Greeff)

OlivierDanvel (Olivier Jean Andre Danvel)

rayvahey (Raymond Noel Vahey)
What was my strategy to hand-pick these particular traders? First I did some basic scanning using eToro's built-in search engine. The most important filter was that the trader was profitable within the last two years: unfortunately, eToro does not allow to reach details of earlier performance automatically. To know how the trader performed before 2019, I had to look at stats in the profile of each of them. I was also taking into account how often they trade (to avoid those who do only a couple of trades yearly), whether they were trading recently and whether they write posts regularly in their feed. With this, I got a list of fifteen candidates to copy:
As you already know, I finally chose three of them. Rubymza seemed to be the most trustworthy stock trader, based on profits, posts feed and regular trading, among other things. Regarding OlivierDanvel, his uniqueness is the ability to record continuous profits with the Forex market. Finally, with rayvahey I wanted to increase my exposure to the commodities market.
Wish me good luck!
Michael

P.S.
You might find those copy-trading related readings interesting:

Disclosures:
submitted by investing-scientist2 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Copy trading with eToro: impressions, doubts and (ignored) lessons

(no promotional content, no affiliate links)
Hi,
exactly four years ago, I started copying eToro investors / traders that I selected using the broker's built-in search engine (profitable in last two years, already being copied by others), followed by manual filtering, to take into account fluctuations in yearly returns, composition of their portfolios etc. With that, I got a list of 10 people whom I started to copy on a demo account:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u52f0XHfr-LauIscKcFDYF0yGTTUr6VY/view?usp=sharing
In the screenshot you can see that in case of the first two of them the amount invested was $10,000, while for the rest it was just $100. This is because I started copying the first two a couple of weeks earlier; eventually I changed this into $100 the same day I made the screenshot and this is when my calculations start - so this thing is irrelevant, I just cannot travel in time to make another screenshot.
What I did after that?
Well, within the next six weeks my profits oscillated between -$11 and +$9.50 (the biggest profit was on Nov 9, a day after US presidential elections). I found this "boring" and discontinued experimenting with copy trading.
Today I looked back at those ten traders. Here is what I found. Firstly, seven of them are not with eToro anymore; investorNo1, Simple-Stock-Mkt, tradingrelax, 4exPirate, primit, Gallojack, xjurokx. The other three traders are:
My observations and thoughts are as follows:
  1. Seven out of ten traders are not with eToro anymore, which makes me wonder why. I have no proof but my guess is they simply performed poorly, lost their copiers and closed their accounts. This is already alarming but what if they opened another account? Or, even worse, multiple accounts? They could be investing small money and try different risky approaches, hoping that at least one account will turn out profitable in the long turn, attracting potential copiers. (I'm not claiming that those 7 particular traders did this, it's just my general suspicion regarding some of eToro traders)
  2. I'm unable to calculate what would be my profit if I never stopped copying them, because I cannot check at what day and with what profit those seven traders left eToro. I'm guessing this would be an immense loss. On the other hand, considering the three traders who are still with eToro, I would lose more than a quarter of my assets!
What now?
I must be a quite adventurous person or at least an incorrigible optimist, because a month ago (exactly on Aug 26th) I started copying three traders with real money. Here is who they are.
rubymza (Heloise Greeff)

OlivierDanvel (Olivier Jean Andre Danvel)

rayvahey (Raymond Noel Vahey)
What was my strategy to hand-pick these particular traders? First I did some basic scanning using eToro's built-in search engine. The most important filter was that the trader was profitable within the last two years: unfortunately, eToro does not allow to reach details of earlier performance automatically. To know how the trader performed before 2019, I had to look at stats in the profile of each of them. I was also taking into account how often they trade (to avoid those who do only a couple of trades yearly), whether they were trading recently and whether they write posts regularly in their feed. With this, I got a list of fifteen candidates to copy:
As you already know, I finally chose three of them. Rubymza seemed to be the most trustworthy stock trader, based on profits, posts feed and regular trading, among other things. Regarding OlivierDanvel, his uniqueness is the ability to record continuous profits with the Forex market. Finally, with rayvahey I wanted to increase my exposure to the commodities market.
Wish me good luck!
Michael

P.S.
You might find those copy-trading related readings interesting:

Disclosures:
submitted by investing-scientist2 to InvestmentClub [link] [comments]

Learn how a Global Fintech major was able to increase user engagement with the help of Contify’s Competitive Intelligence Software.

After deploying Contify’s competitive intelligence software, a global fintech major was able to improve user engagement by leveraging automated competitive intelligence. Contify helped them enhance the average session length by double and delivered a hundred plus new updates each hour. In this case study, you’ll learn how Contify’s competitive intelligence solution helped the fintech firm enhance its market intelligence system by boosting user engagement, communicating information quicker, and more effectively using competitive Intelligence reports.
Click here to read the full case study.
submitted by Akshatjainn to u/Akshatjainn [link] [comments]

FF News: Bollywood Mafia 'linked,' to SSR Murder...??

“Captain Covid,’ investigates “Sudden death,’ of
Sushant Singh Rajput…??
by Fehmeda Thokan
(13 September 2020) Captain Covid, Mr. Omar Abdulla
South Africa’s leading Covid warrior
arrived in Mumbai last week on investigations of the
‘sudden death,’ of
Bollywood Superstar, Sushant Singh Rajput.
Rajput who was found ‘hanged to the ceiling fan,’ of his Bollywood
apartment
Is said to have been murdered by his girlfriend
Rhea Chakraborty.
Chakraborty who spoke to Footprints in Mumbai, says that she loved
Sushant and
never meant to harm him by feeding him drugs that could
lead to his death.
“It was suicide, he could not take the pressure, he was heart-broken,
and he was
not making money in Bollywood. He was planning a career
in farming.’
Abdulla who met with Sushant earlier in 2016, says that Sushant
was becoming
The King of Bollywood after previous hero’s Shar Rukh Khan,
Salman Khan, Aamir
Khan and Saif Ali Khan was falling.
“Perhaps it was the Bollywood Mafia who killed Sushant or his
devious fiancé,
Rhea.’
Speaking to The Bollywood Times, local businessman Mr. Iqbal Sookal, noted that
It’s been f o u r months of investigations by The Mumbai Police and CBI,
and yet India
cannot ‘come to terms,’ with the death of Sushant Singh Rajput.
“Everyday I shed a tear because of the murder that took place.
We pray for justice for Sushant and bring their murderer killers to justice.’
The Omar Abdulla Group which owns shares into Bitcoin SA, Forex SA,
Instagram SA, TikTok SA, Jobs SA, Footprints SA and other shareholding is
said to be one of South Africa’s leading and fastest growing companies.
“With Covid cases throughout the world coming down,
markets are starting to boom, and we could see an even bigger
jump in growth December 2020.’ the company read on
their website.
Another resident Ms. Farah Ramlall who spoke to India Today leaped that
the death of Sushant will be mourned by millions
of his fans throughout the world.
“India has lost an iconic hero during these tough
Covid Times.’
Whilst markets start to open up and boom, The Omar Abdulla Group continues
to bring future news and investments today, with ongoing
interest into the Asian and European markets.
“One has to learn from the story of Sushant that one day one can have
everything and the next nothing. Lets invest wisely into our futures,
so that we protect the ones we love.’ Poked The Saturday Star.
Captain Covid, Mr. Omar Abdulla ended by saying that he was ‘happy,’
that world cases were coming down, amid a vaccine being found soon.
“Whilst thousands have died from Covid, we should remember the story
of Sushant Singh Rajput to honour our heroes during
these tough times…’
submitted by footprints888 to u/footprints888 [link] [comments]

Integration with Financial Excel Add-In – Excel Price Feed

Integration with Financial Excel Add-In – Excel Price Feed

https://preview.redd.it/j4acwxvwfvr51.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=77df789ef696a2cdecf2e3266b550083ade09d59
Today we are happy to announce an integration with the financial Excel add-in – Excel Price Feed. Excel Price Feed is easy to use and featureful add-in for Excel owned and distributed by Coderun Technologies Ltd. It was launched in early 2019 and is regularly updated with new features, for EOD Historical Data the add-in has excellent support of Fundamental and End of Day APIs.
https://preview.redd.it/c2m0g8c3gvr51.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=4968e0e7ac2d1f4f31485ac441dadacdaf7bc825
  • Excel Price Feed is an Add-in that includes 100+ new Excel formulas for live, historical, and fundamental market data.
  • Markets include stocks, stock indices, stock options, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Learn More and download the plugin on Excel Price Feed page.
Please note that you should have both subscriptions to use this plugin with our data: from EOD Historical Data and from Excel Price Feed. Our subscriptions do not include add-in licensing and it should be ordered separately.
submitted by EOD_historical_data to EODHistoricalData [link] [comments]

On diversification and risk control

On diversification and risk control

https://preview.redd.it/re10or6z4cq51.png?width=1904&format=png&auto=webp&s=1563e44a573045fb8328462c392887b83a1c1b05
Defy Fund gives retail investors exposure to cryptos, forex, commodity futures, and stocks.

Why we diversify?

Most fund managers state that they diversify to reduce portfolio risk.
That is not the reason for us to trade as many classes of assets as possible.
We diversify using several DeFi platforms for the following two main reasons:

  1. More trading opportunities:
  • Trading cryptos as an asset class gives the trader the benefit of only one market. In the past five-plus years since our fund managers started trading cryptocurrencies, the crypto markets are highly correlated most of the time. Almost all of them move up and down at the same time. Furthermore, the market moves sideway 70-86% of the time.
  • We trade both long (buy) and short (sell) positions during the relatively rare periods the market is trending. All of our trading strategies are determined by Market Types and we stay away from choppy markets because we are not good at catching the relative highs and lows of small movements.
  • The result is that we were out of the market most of the time. This is also why sometimes you see no trading Signals when you visit here.
  • By adding stocks and commodity futures to the trading baskets, we have more opportunity to stay in one of the moving markets.
  1. Providing easy access to multiple-asset classes to overseas traders: Mos of our clients have existing investment portfolios and are seeking more exposure to assets not available in their home country. However, it has always been expensive for institutional traders, and basically impossible, for smaller retail traders to have global market access. The cost is too high, plus it is geographically and politically impossible for most of the people in less developed countries. Through smart-contract-enabled synthetic assets, decentralized finance platforms are offering anyone a chance to trade stocks, commodity futures, and any liquid assets in the world.

What about risk control?

Using diversification as the means of risk control is ineffective. It is often used as an excuse for incompetence.
Risk control is the starting and the endpoint of all of our trading strategy and portfolio management decisions. We use different risk control methods as the main ways to achieve trading objectives.

  • Every trade goes through the Risk Engine before it was generated by the Decision Engine, and it is the Risk Engine that gives the Order Server the final approval before an open order is sent.
  • After a position is established, the Risk Engine actively monitors the position against its original trading objective with a continuous new price feed.
In short, we consider the risk control is the single most important factor in trading success more than anything else.
For more trading/investing information, visit iob.fi DAO
submitted by IOB_llc to u/IOB_llc [link] [comments]

Getting breaking news stories / events in real-time

Hi everyone:
I'm trying to find a website that reports on big news stories in real-time and what is driving the markets in real-time.
Case in point: today at ~2:50PM EST, news broke that the Moderna vaccine results have some problems with it. Stocks plunged between 2:55 PM and 3:00 PM.
News sites reported on this vaccine news with 30-60 min lag, which is far too long if you're trying to daytrade aggressively.
The one website I've found so far that does a good job at this is ForexLive, who reported on this at 3:00 PM.
Are there any other websites or Twitter feeds that work for this? Thanks!!
submitted by anotheruwstudent to investing [link] [comments]

Factset DD

Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment
Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists
If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now:
Their latest 8k filing reported the following:
Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions.
Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region
Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019.
Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results.
The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020.
FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders.
As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here.
It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down
FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with.
Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp

FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015:

So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33%

EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded.

P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy.

Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016

Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself.

SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices
I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful.
Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in.
submitted by WannabeStonks69 to investing [link] [comments]

Surge of New Forex Traders? Read this!

I've noticed that about 2,000 people have joined the Forex community in the recent weeks. Has anyone else noticed this? I suspect this is because of the lay offs due to the corona virus, and people are frantically looking for ways to supplement their incomes. While I'm glad that people are trying to better themselves and take control of their financial situations, I have to admit that the daily "newbie" questions are getting quite annoying. And it's not because there are new, inexperienced traders asking for help, but it's because the questions are more-less the same questions. I know there is a pinned "New Traders" section at the top of the thread, but it seems it isn't catching much traction.
But first, to the new traders I'd first like to say:

Welcome! This will be a tough journey, but it will pay in dividends (not literally).
A couple tips before we start:
FIRST, see the pinned New Traders section of Forex
SECOND, go to babypips and take their FREE courses where you will learn the basics. I never did because I'm an idiot, and it took me many years of trial and error to succeed in this game. Don't be a lemon like me, go to babypips.
Now my basics;
Always have at least a 1:2 Risk:Reward. Simply put, risk at least $1 for $2.
Always set a stop loss and take profit.
In the beginning, I find it best to give new traders a black or white, go-or-no-go trading strategy. Trade mechanically. While discretionary trading is profitable, you need years of experience and time in the charts to be good at it. It could be something like, "I only trade low volatility break outs on the 4hr. Any candle below x ATR and I will enter via stop order at the high/low of that candle. My sl will be at the high/low of the entry candle, and I will look to make at least 2 reward on that trade. I will risk 1% per trade, even on demo, and I will trade in the direction of a 10 period moving average" This is a VERY crude strategy, one I just pulled out of my ass, so don't go using it and blowing your accounts!
I recommend starting with 1 pair in the beginning, at MOST 3. And I recommend not swapping into different pairs. Keep those 1-3 pairs.
Once babypips is completed, demo trade. Put time in the charts and develop a strategy (mechanically, preferably). Your strategy could be as complex or as simple as you like. Simplicity is genius in my opinion, but you do you. I'm not trying to sound like an ass, but everything you really needed to learn you learned from babypips.
With that said, DO NOT pay for courses from ANYONE. They will often know the same as you, if not less. In my opinion to be really great in this game you don't need a lot of information., and capitalize on every opportunity. You just need to be really good at one style and max that the hell out. For instance, being really good at low volatility breakouts, and having a system based off that. No amount of schooling (high school, college, or courses via Forex gurus) will make you successful. It's one thing to know a strategy, but to implement it in real time with real consequences is daunting. The only way to conquer this is to simply do it. Trade.
Trade with an amount of money you can emotionally and financially afford to lose! I would even recommend starting a live account with $50 and only trading micro lots (0.01) until you become comfortable and your strategy proves successful. This is AFTER demo trading your strategy.
Master yourself before you master the markets. Work out. Feed your brain. Get enough sleep. The money you make or lose isn't worth your health.
Psychology. In my opinion the best psychology you can have while trading is a form of stoicism. You've placed your trade based off your strategy, you managed your trade based off your strategy, and you risked an amount you've told yourself you were comfortable losing with an account you told yourself you were comfortable blowing, so what's the worry? Why the second guessing? Everyone's heard that story, right? Where a man goes to a successful "guru" and says he wants to be successful. The guru says, "Ok. Show up at the beach this time tomorrow." The man shows up at the beach in a suit and tie, ready for success! The guru tells him to get in the water. Once in, the guru holds the mans head under the water, drowning him. At the last second the guru lets him up and says, "once you want success as much you wanted to breathe, you'll be successful. That's what you need to be like. You need to be willing to do what is necessary and put in the work. It's not easy. You're going to lose money, maybe even blow accounts. You may struggle for years without a return, or even lose money over that time. How bad do you want it success, though? And are you willing to drown to attain it?
Best of luck new traders!
Experienced traders, please feel free to add things or tell me I'm a goof in the comments.
submitted by SandfordKing to Forex [link] [comments]

I've reproduced 130+ research papers about "predicting the stock market", coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here's what I've learnt.

ok, so firstly,
all of the papers I found through Google search and Google scholar. Google scholar doesn't actually have every research paper so you need to use both together to find them all. They were all found by using phrases like "predict stock market" or "predict forex" or "predict bitcoin" and terms related to those.

Next,
I only tested papers written in the past 8 years or so, I think anything older is just going to be heavily Alpha-mined so we can probably just ignore those ones altogether.

Then,
Anything where it's slightly ambiguous with methodology, I tried every possible permutation to try and capture what the authors may have meant. For example, one paper adds engineered features to the price then says "then we ran the data through our model" - it's not clear if it means the original data or the engineered data, so I tried both ways. This happens more than you'd think!

THEN,
Anything that didn't work, I tried my own ideas with the data they were using or substituted one of their models with others that I knew of.

Now before we go any further, I should caveat that I was a profitable trader at multiple Tier-1 US banks so I can say with confidence that I made a decent attempt of building whatever the author was trying to get at.

Oh, and one more thing. All of this work took about 7 months in total.

Right, let's jump in.

So with the papers, I found as many as I could, then I read through them and put them in categories and then tested each category at a time because a lot of papers were kinda saying the same things.
Here are the categories:
Results:
Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected (I guess ultimately they're all the same thing but still) OR a few may have had a smidge of Alpha but as soon as you add transaction costs it all disappears.
Every author that's been publicly challenged about the results of their paper says it's stopped working due to "Alpha decay" because they made their methodology public. The easiest way to test whether it was truly Alpha decay or just overfitting by the authors is just to reproduce the paper then go further back in time instead of further forwards. For the papers that I could reproduce, all of them failed regardless of whether you go back or forwards. :)

Now, results from the two most popular categories were:

The most frustrating paper:
I have true hate for the authors of this paper: "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory". Probably the most complex AND vague in terms of methodology and after weeks trying to reproduce their results (and failing) I figured out that they were leaking future data into their training set (this also happens more than you'd think).

The two positive take-aways that I did find from all of this research are:
  1. Almost every instrument is mean-reverting on short timelines and trending on longer timelines. This has held true across most of the data that I tested. Putting this information into a strategy would be rather easy and straightforward (although you have no guarantee that it'll continue to work in future).
  2. When we were in the depths of the great recession, almost every signal was bearish (seeking alpha contributors, news, google trends). If this holds in the next recession, just using this data alone would give you a strategy that vastly outperforms the index across long time periods.
Hopefully if anyone is getting into this space this will save you an absolute tonne of time and effort.
So in conclusion, if you're building trading strategies. Simple is good :)

Also one other thing I'd like to add, even the Godfather of value investing, the late Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) used to test his strategies (even though he'd be trading manually) so literally every investor needs to backtest regardless of if you're day-trading or long-term investing or building trading algorithms.
submitted by chiefkul to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Getting breaking news stories / events in real-time?

Hi everyone:
I'm trying to find a website that reports on big news stories in real-time and what is driving the markets in real-time.
Case in point: today at ~2:50PM EST, news broke that the Moderna vaccine results have some problems with it. Stocks plunged between 2:55 PM and 3:00 PM.
News sites reported on this vaccine news with 30-60 min lag, which is far too long if you're trying to daytrade aggressively.
The one website I've found so far that does a good job at this is ForexLive, who reported on this at 3:00 PM.
Are there any other websites or Twitter feeds that work for this? Thanks!!
submitted by anotheruwstudent to stocks [link] [comments]

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Ever wonder why when you trade your stop gets tagged? Although you put it in a spot where "There's no way price will want to reach my stop level for sure this time"
As a trader, particularly a new trader – I've always wondered why my stops were only tagged for the price of running briefly the area that I've ever so carefully researched ... hit my stop point ..... then move on in the direction of my original study and run to the point where my profit should have been taken.
Everything leaving me wondering ...... In the hell for what did this do??? Obviously this is a common issue that has plagued most traders. At least, I know that I have faced this very problem for years.

What I noticed was that there was a very distinctive pattern going on, and it was repeating itself again and again. I noticed that the traditional supply and demand theory, support and resistance zones, or double top / double bottom trading patterns that I have been told time and time again that price has always covered these regions, was not really a real thing.

The argument had been, ..... Put me into the shoes of the major investment banks vs. the home-trading fighter who was going to conquer the markets every day. If you were a large company with an infinite supply of money and you decided to bring a massive chunk of it into the game, you can't just dump the whole lot into the game and demand all your orders to be filled out at once, then take off the price in the direction you want .... no ..... That is not exactly the way it operates.All these major organizations need to do is pair orders.

And they match that order by sending the markets to areas where liquidity is high .... The stops AKA!

Let 's say you 're evaluating the markets, for example, and deciding that price wants to go higher than an old regular target as it's in a bullish uptrend at the moment. And you see price for the past day, or so, not willing to go any lower.
What looks like a bit of a demand shelf or support level where the demand is all in a nice tight clustered row that just doesn't seem to want to go down and you know for sure this time price won't go under that heavily protected area ..... only for the price to run down quickly and refuse to go up (in this case a long position).
And I started to note that these "secure zones" or places where price is certainly not going to come up / down to be simply used by these large entities as feeding grounds for harvesting liquidity and adding more positions to include them in a larger movement.

They need a lot of money to buy in and just to do so, your sell stop is great. Many traders put their stops below this tight pack range of candles a few pips / ticks / cents believing they 're secure as price obviously doesn't want to come down below them. And most traders have their positions liquidated by the hungry major capital banks to feed the whole push higher than you were originally right about.

And how can you stop this pitfall happening to you is the million-dollar question? There are a few ways to handle this and keep your hard-earned money from being ripped away from you in an moment, which you have at risk in the markets.

Stop-Hunting and the Hunger For New Capital

I found that you would do much better in your trading career if you look at these areas (in the above example a long position) as a chance rather than a safe zone to put your stop. What I mean by that is, anticipate them coming down under those equal lows and try to get far below it instead of getting long above the area of consolidation. Yeah, that means you're going to have to go long when the competition runs against you and I know , I know, it feels really uncomfortable and wrong and goes against all you've been taught ... but believe me that this approach can give you the very best possible entries.
Imagine: getting into the day 's low and riding price action all the way up to the top of everyday scale!!! Wouldn't this be terrific?

Well, if your quantitative skills are timely and your business research tells you to go a long way, then all you need to do is wait for the perfect entry. Let the price build up and create "demand shelf" or support areas for that. Let the market shift sideways and bounce around like a pinball mocking all the other traders who were at the top of these stuff for a long time and put their stops just below them in hopes that the price would not come down and stop them. All the while playing with and holding their emotions on the cliff of –Will this be a winner, or a trade loser? So when price does the unimaginable and runs below the support area and scoops up all the traders stops you can then go long and take part in the glorious upside of being right – and of course make some money doing it.

Notice facile? Well, that is not so. It takes patience and timing and experience to catch all those eager participants who keep their stops on a silver platter for the fat and thirsty banks to suck them up, as the markets normally send price south of the border.
Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital (meme)

You have to define the times of the day when the wrong move is made apparent.
Or when they make that low of the day – typically within the 1st 1 – 4 hours
of the trading day, and I don't mean either when the banks come online at 8 a.m. NY.
I mean 12 am, at the beginning of the day.
So yes you 're definitely going to have to be awake if you like watching
price do its thing and don't trust the process of buying into those down candles.
And use a limit order like me-then go to sleep and trust your overall analysis to be right and wake up to your morning with a nice little start.
But the trick is-where are you going to shop under the lows?

And where does your stop then go when you buy?

Those are all interesting questions that I should seek to answer clearly here – but alas, all markets are different.

Yet general rule of thumb as follows:

  1. You should predict that such stop-sweeps will occur in grades 5 and 10. The average is usually about 10, cents, pips, ticks or otherwise. The bigger the step down the more likely it is not a stop raid and potentially a reversal of the pattern. And you can prevent too much danger and keep the stop fairly secure.
Your stop will need to go low on the 1hr map below the next move. As a minimum, and yes, that may mean a greater risk level that you are usually prepared to take.
However if that is the case then try to turn your power back.
You don't need to make every trade worth a million dollars.
This is about continuity, when dealing, not winning the draw.
In your research you need to be sure the price will push higher as this is how the overall trend directions point it.
I am not recommending trade in these types of trades against the trend.
You need to be in full agreement with the direction of the total daily level.
And bringing it in.

Also, a great way to place the maximum risk reward for your take profit:

Attempt to position it in places above the market where short-sellers will stop.

And in a nutshell, with a bit of analysis, all the knowledge I described above can be readily found, I didn't come up with it on my own and these ideas are not unique. Yet how you adapt them to your particular trading style is up to you and relies on your interpretation of these principles for your success and/or failure. Price is fractal and would want to return to markets it has previously sold before – if you accept the basic fact you ought to be doing very well in your business career.

Eva " Forex " Canares .
Cheers and Profitable Trading to All.

About FTMO -
They fund forex traders. Just Pass their risk management rules and begin trading for their company. They'll provide you capital up to $300k USD for trading the financial markets. 70% of profits you keep and losses are covered by them. How does it work?
How to Become a Funded Forex ,Stocks or CryptoCurrency Trader?
submitted by Eva_Canares to FTMO_Forex_Trading [link] [comments]

The Daily Autist, By An Autist, For Autists. 03/24/20

The Daily Autist

03/24/20

Hot Off The Spectrum

TLDR of the News to Inform Your Moves (Monday was a lot. Even my post is long)

What’s up sluts. I’m back with another burst of autism. I’ve been Rick fuggin Rollin in the tendies (AKA not hemorrhaging money) and these posts have been fairly accurate. I’ll be adding plays to the NostraLosses section as a result to bring more clarity to my dumbass takes.
FIRST THINGS FUCKING FIRST THE ORIGINAL AUTIST ARTIST WHO DREW THE OLD LOGO HAS COME TO LIGHT IM SO FUCKING HAPPY. We’ll never get it back, but sometimes closure on it’s own feels good enough. What am I a fucking teenager? The rest of the sub was shit yesterday/this morning.I was shadowbanned for posting “Fear mongering Corona Content,” and yet 75% of the sub’s hot posts are exactly that but with even less info than I had. Rest is memes. No plays or info. Honestly kinda sad.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fnpz20/hey_yall_i_drew_the_original_baby_ama/
Obligatory Corona Dump (Monday news could not stop throating COVID content)
Things are in such a Twilight Zone State Amazon is getting credit for being “altruistic,” like they didn’t hike up prices since late January themselves and only altered their practices once Trump threatened Defense Production Act (DPA) notice they’re also only suspending, so once things are just slightly back to normal please price gouge errthang.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3076638/amazon-suspends-almost-4000-seller-accounts-unfairly-priced-products
Costco is also getting unwarranted credit. They won’t take back your tower of toilet paper or tub of hand sanitizer, which COSTS them money they already made. Did they have any problem hiking the price, refusing to limit sales per person, not give their employees PPE, or donate any relief from their excess food products due to banning eating at the location and numbers going down? Nah? ok. So the good guy is the company that profited off of fear and won’t provide the minimum financial relief to those who thought it was that extreme. Stop demonizing your fellow worker citizens.
https://brobible.com/culture/article/costco-toilet-paper-returns-hoarders/
Companies getting high praise and both articles implying a return to normalcy soon. How does that affect the markets? Normies are being told everything is okay and they will follow suit. Is everything okay? Absolutely not. These MFs in charge just announced unlimited QE yesterday nothing’s okay financially. Retard normie pump coming in.
Financial News:
Trump is saying that unless 10,000 die in the streets soon he’s gonna “re-open” the economy after the 15 days. At this point it’s a bit of a walking Onion article. Thursday?” ITS A WAR WE WILL CAPTURE AND KNIFE COVID’S ASSHOLE”. Friday? “This is serious. I do not want to use any drastic measures but I will. This is very verry serious.” Monday? “Isn’t being stuck inside fucking wack? Let’s open the pit up bro” I recommend watching the video with subtitles to get a transcript of his speech patterns.
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/america-will-again-and-soon-be-open-for-id701434357?chan=9qsux198
I predicted the Fed couldn’t devalue the dollar as fast as other countries could want it and it seems to be holding up. A very small dip from the news they’re willing to print unlimited moneys? The global economy is in trouble if that's still the stability bearer. Puts are lookin good, but they need to be farther out. 04/17 soonest for my comfort. Especially with the temporary re-open of the US economy. Seeing Reuters use “money bazooka,’ multiple times in the last week has been fantastic.
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex/forex-dollar-slips-as-feds-money-bazooka-raises-hopes-of-easier-cash-supply-idUSL4N2BH2AF
Italy’s debt, tax, and unemployment relief are all being held up by congressional disputes and an ability to only handle a tenth of the paperwork that comes in. Sound familiar? Maybe ominous? The population density in regions of Italy is our closest analog to how a free (eat my dick South Korea) country is gonna get hit. Their healthcare system is also tainted by for-profit companies and insurance so it’s also pretty similar medical coverage wise per capita.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-insight/banks-struggle-to-ride-to-the-rescue-in-europes-cash-crunch-battle-idUSKBN21B0OE
United Airlines is threatening to fire workers if they don’t get a bailout. I hope to fuck this is the tipping point and the government forces United to hand over their payroll list so the gov. Provide financial relief to their employees while United liquidates their assets or sells to some Saudi Conglomerate. Effect on market? PUTS ON UNITED BITCH THEY GOIN OUT
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/819401028/united-airlines-threatens-to-cut-jobs-if-coronavirus-aid-package-isnt-passed (From 03/20 but was drowned out by other news. Looks more and more likely airlines won’t be bailed out)
Everyday Fox business posts something for Boomers to buy more Ford or Dine stocks (idk what old people buy) and today they have some good ammo. Overnight futures were up. Pre-market today as of 06:31 EST is $234.72 after touching 238. Looks like today is going to be the bull trap day as the rumors of stimulus are hot again. If it gets passed I expect a 245-248 top before the unemployment numbers Thursday fist everyone. Market effect? Short term calls as everyone gets high on optimism and long term puts for when they come down.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-futures-gain-ground-as-congress-moves-closer-to-a-stimulus-deal
Crypto is taking off after tanking yesterday. Overnight rally (NZ markets followed by Asian markets) carried it up 14% in the last 16 hours. It started to rise slowly after the QE announcement but really flew overnight and this morning. Cooling off now but already had a dip to 6650 and right back up to 6700+ While not always correlated, crypto is a key indicator right now in speculative confidence while people are budgeting for maintaining their lives versus increasing their future wealth. No link because every crypto site is owned by a Ponzi schemer. Fight me and my tinfoil fucking hat. Here are some squigglies and bars
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITBAY
My NostraLosses Prediction? The rumors of stimulus and the passed unlimited QE will provide market optimism today and tomorrow. Thursday’s unemployment numbers is the next scheduled big news so I wouldn’t get any short term puts unless scalping. If anything unexpected news could bring the market even higher with it being random good news versus any random catastrophic news. Market open will be up about 6% from the previous day’s close, so I expect a short term dip at open which would be a good spot to get quick calls to then ride the pump. Market closes above 235 and if stimulus passes along with more false optimism statements by Trump there’s possibly a sharp bull run to 245-248 by end of Wednesday.
Plays to follow:
SPY: 240c 03/27 once the first dip of day happens. If your bankroll allows for a few days farther out I would go for it. If SPY does hit 240, SELL call and BUY put for 228 04/01 at soonest.
DIA: 190P 04/17 It hasn’t fallen nearly as hard as it should (another 5% imo) and the industries making it up are going to have numbers showing how bad the payroll cuts and profit loss has been. During today’s pump get some not so fucking expensive puts (made sure not to say cheap)
Any Stupid Tech Company: Retarded OTM call for 03/27 or later. With so many people being stuck at home the last week or so the tech companies are outperforming the market with the idea that: The high user rate means more $$$, but if there’s more people on because they are not working or laid off, how do they have the money to buy shitty sponsored products on their feed? The kicker here is ads have always had near useless efficacy rates on social media so the fact they will continue to do a shit job might not change much. Anyway people are fucking dumb and tech gonna continue to rally this week. Signed, someone with 1.5k in TWTR Puts expiring over next 4 weeks.
Most people don’t even give you one play. I’m giving you multiple ways to lose your money.
TLDR of my TLDR: Companies who profited off the crisis getting karma points for no reason. Normies think the crisis will be over next Friday. International currencies are still erratic but the markets are rallying today globally (sign of lacking underlying stability for said rally). Italy can’t pass anything or handle the paperwork from their previously set up process (AKA USA in 7-10 days under current stimulus proposals) and they don’t have a solution in sight. Stimulus has everyone rock hard for calls again, ride the short term rise and pick up puts while you’re up there. Just be a long term gay bear experimenting with bulls depending on the day.
Results on my thoughts from last post 03/23: I was incorrect on circuit breaker open but was only 1% away and it did run up mid-day as called. So if you sold at 218 to buy calls to sell a few hours later, we nailed it boys. If you were aiming for price instead of time, it never hit 234 again which was a key test and you’re likely sitting on a fat red option right now. I was about half right which is all you need to be. I’ve also switched up Market affect and effect because I’m retarded and am unsure which is right anymore. Nvm grammarly fixed it.
And again, I mean this sincerely,

submitted by AvocadosAreMeh to wallstreetbets2 [link] [comments]

Best setup for 500,- account.

Hi, I'm new to daytrading and i have a few questions. I'm from the netherlands btw so not US based. 1. What is the best platform+broker for a +/-500,- account? I really dont want to spend too much on monthly costs and fee's, but i do need a good platform with level 2 quotes, real time america stocks data and customisable charts. If this has already been asked, can someone please send the link to the post?
  1. What is the best way to papertrade on the stock market? (For stocks between 1-10 euro's) I tried some, but some platforms have 15m delay, and not reliable level 2 quotes. And others don't have the data feed i need. For example ninjatrader only has forex or future papertrading data feed. But I do like the platform.
Thanks in advance.
submitted by skinnypenix to Daytrading [link] [comments]

2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.

2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.
Not many people like to talk about bear markets, especially not when the more emotive terms such as "Stock market crash" are used. It's often looked upon as fear mongering, and sensationalism. Preparation is practical, though.

This post is not intended to be fear mongering. In fact I want to discuss ways we can look at the market and plan for different scenarios that can mean we have no reason to be afraid.
Even if the S&P500 was to trade at 1,000 (big drop from current price (Today is the 31st August 2019, price is 2,946), we can plan and act in such ways this is a non harmful event for us. Particularly those who have net worth's to protect that has heavy stocks exposure.
This is not going to be one of these, "It's the top RIGHT NOW ... everyone panic!" sort of posts. Regardless of my views on this, I know this is a message that would not be well received. You do not know me, and too often people have cried wolf on this and been laughably incorrect. Instead what I will do is describe price moves in the indices that most people will have every reason to believe at this point can't happen.
Hopefully, they do not happen. I am not gleefully fangirling for a market crash. I just think there is prudence in preparation. These events will not happen in the hours after I post this, so I'd ask you kindly suspend prejudices. There is nothing to be gained by bickering over opinions of whether this will happen or not. I just want to give my perspective on how a person should protect themselves after it happens, if it does.
I'll cover some of the things I'd forecast will be points people will want to raise or questions likely to be asked. If you'd like to skip to the forecast and subsequent trade plan you can scroll down to the line break (unless you're going to make a common comment, then please read the following section first).

Why Do I think My Opinion Matters?

Many of you may be smarter than I in many ways, but few of you will have spent as much time assessing charting patterns as I have. Indeed, many people will scoff at the very idea of "lines on a chart" being worth anything. I'm not here to have this debate, I fully agree your view point is rational and logical. If I'd not spent years watching price charts every day, I'd think the same.
I focus mostly on Forex markets. I know these well. There are many ways currencies look like they may move that are ways they should not move unless there is big problems in stocks. These are nagging warnings. The attitude to risk in the Forex markets is negative, and stock markets show dangerous patterns. I watch these topping sorts of patterns every day. I see them in intra-day crashes, intra-week crashes and intra-month crashes.
Most major moves fit into these patterns, and when the same patterns are applied to previous stock markets in the months before they crashed, the way the patterns form and then complete (in a crash) is the same. From my perspective, these are just intra-decade crashes. There is little technical difference on the charts - although it's very different in the real world it affects.
This is why I am doing this in a "IF we see this ... then this is likely". I know at this point in the pattern, my methods predict something that will be highly unusual. If that thing happens, if we do not crash after that, we'd be breaking the trend of all market crashes in history (this is not likely, it does not seem the smart way to bet your net worth).

Technical Analysis is Tea Leaves!


You're welcome to your opinion on this, and I do understand your point of view. I will not post examples to try and prove my perspective on it, since it will always be called "curve-fitting". All I will say is nothing I have done in my years of trading has involved me persuading others what I do works. I do not sell training or anything of the like. I've spent many years using the things I've learned to bet my own money, and I've done well.
I will not debate on this subject, because it's always a deadlock. You can not convince me I've not seen what I've seen, and I can not show you what I've seen, and do not expect you to believe it without proof.

Stop Fear Mongering!


I really would like to re-iterate, I do not want you to be afraid. I am going to describe something that might happen that will be scary if it does happen. If it does not, there is no problem. I do not wish you to be fearful before, during or after.

This is like "Stop, Drop and Roll". None of us ever expect to be ablaze. If we are, this is good information. It will be better than running about waving arms and feeding the flames to engulf us. All I want to do here is to give you the "stop, drop and roll" of a market crash. To prevent you panicking and making bad decisions at bad areas. To allow you instead to go, "Fuck! Okay ... well that's not good. Now I have to ..." if scary things do happen.

No One Can Time the Market!

People have predicted and traded every stock market crash in history. The fact that many people try this and get it wrong does not take away from the fact people get this right, then place the right trades and make millions. Not many people make understanding the ways a market moves their life's work. If you do, you get a good feel for it's mood at any given time.

[Fundamental Analysis ] Says That Won't Happen!

I am not here to debate analysis viewpoints. Doing so has little use, it's better to forecast, assess and then take the best actions. I'll confess I am too ignorant on many of these topic to engage in debate. I wake up every day 5 days a week and decide where to bet my money. In doing this, I've found charts forecast and news reports. I can find no way of making money by being told what happened already, so I use the charts.
What I will say is for the warning move I will discuss to happen, something news related will have to change. Some catalyst event will have to happen. In 2008, it was Lehman. Make no mistake, the warnings were on the chart long before the bankruptcy was in the news.

Time in the Markets is Better than Timing the Markets


I am perfectly fine with this perspective, and not here to argue against it. If the market could drop 50% or more and you'd not be concerned because you think it will be back up in 10 years, this is none of my business.
I'm a day trader, so for me personally timing the markets is everything. Spending a lot of time in the market day trading often means you've made a mistake. I'm looking for ways to get foresight into what market moves may develop and understanding of what times and conditions I can enter into these moves to profit from the.
I want to stress I am not necessarily advocating the average person tries to time the markets. In the same way an electrician would not suggest you re-wire your own home. You also could not say to the electrician it's better to leave the lights off than risk getting a shock. Different preparations and skills sets give different possibilities. I spent a lot of years and lost money through a lot of them starting out learning how to do this.
The things I will explain here will not allow a person to consistently time the market. If I may be excused a cheesy pun, this "crash course" will be dealing with only single event, and one single set of scenarios. What I want to put forward for you in this is price moves to watch for and then (really quite specific) levels of price that are likely to offer us the best prices to protect long stock portfolios, or take speculative short trades. Very thin area of assessment.


Forecast and Plan.

What if the S&P500 Went to 2,200 ... Quickly?


It's the weekend, and the last day of August in 2019. The S&P500 has closed 2922 after rallying through the week after some sharp drops from all time highs. We may see record highs again if this keeps up ... but what if next week it opens and starts to fall? Or maybe rallies higher but can not make a new high and starts to fall.
What if it falls faster than it did in the last drop, and what if this time it does not stop? What if it gets to the lows of 2790, and goes from there quickly to 2700. These big levels act as resistance and the market can not trade higher than them. Instead it hits them, reverses and goes down more.

I think people would be nervous, but there'd be still the feeling of this being a normal, albeit tough, corrective move. There's weekly lows of 2,333. Above here the market is still technically up-trending. What if we got there, and the market went through it like it was nothing? What if the coming weeks or months we seen candles bigger than any we've seen recently? What if we were hearing news reports of record falls, rather than record highs?
What if over the development of only weeks and some horrific trading days we went from today's 2922 to break under the 2015 lows of 1,886?
I think people would be afraid!
Nothing I am saying is for the purposes of fear mongering, but I think this is possible. I'd like to say I think it's "highly unlikely", but I am thinking a lot about how to structure real bets on it and I like my odds. If this happens, it's likely the market will go lower still. What you do during the following weeks and months may have a huge affect on your financial health by the start of 2021.

How Does This Scenario Look on a S&P500 Chart?



https://preview.redd.it/ggqyvs2f6xj31.png?width=658&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9d00d758caf655341bd4780a8277b7556546a50

That looks like it's not going to happen, right? I think that this looks like it's not going to happen. We learn through our life experience, and my life experience has taught me when I ignore what I think about things like this and build well structured trade plans that would assume it will happen, money comes. For me, this makes sense to bet on at the moment, as unlikely as it looks. That's getting a bit into "Calling the high", though. \Which this is not about.

This is about what do you do if this happens? What if there is a day when they say on the news that the market just made it's lowest point in the last five years ... and economists and experts say it can go down more!

1 - Filter and assess your sources.
Before you act or even think about the information these sources have (pertaining to what trades to make or expect), check what they were saying now. If they're not saying this could happen - don't worry too much about what they say happens next. They have as much chance of being wrong.

2 - Do not panic.
This is a time to remain calm. Bad things have happened, and there will have been multiple days the market has dropped precipitously. Different economic factors explaining these moves may be threatening to get worse and the market may take more dangerous swings spiking under recent lows. This is the point at which most people will panic and make bad choices with their portfolio.

3 - Buy Around 1,800
This obviously sounds like something anyone would do right now, with price at 2,922; but with the conditions that'd have to be occurring for this of move to happen will make this highly counter intuitive at the time.

4 - Understand Something Changed, New Highs are Not Coming
From peak pessimism around 1,800 I expect the market to start to rally. Rallying strong. Making markets great again.
At this point, you should understand something has changed. The market is not meant to trade at that level in an up-trend. Frequently when these levels 'break', there is a strong counter move that is fierce. It's also brief. We can buy here and offset some of the losses in the mini bounce (but be very cautious).
2,129 area is where the danger of a bear move comes back in. It might rally a bit above here into 2,333.

This is where the second mistake many people will make will be. Not buying the lows, but then starting to buy into this rally thinking it's going to new highs.

Very Important: If price makes moves consistent with what I've described 2,220 - 2,300 are hedge areas.
If you take appropriate actions in these areas you can protect yourself from the chance of excessive loss if the market is to crash in 2020. You can also do this without taking on much risk. Granted if you hedge long portfolios there is some risk of losing a little, but your area of risk on these hedges is less than the area of risk on a long portfolio after this has happened.
When this has happened, historically it's always led to a crash in the coming months/year. We'll have done something the markets do not usually do. Big corrections may look similar, but when you deal with this all the time, you come to know there are specifics that should be noted. If the levels I've mentioned for a buy fill, the market is crashing. It's no longer a question of if.

5 - Hold Hedges Until 1,100

If we crash, the low will probably be only a bit below this level. Anything more than this in a fall would be truly horrific (I know many people think this is horrific, but from a technical point of view this is really to be expected, and not unusual. It only happens after long periods of time, so it's unexpected and uncommon. It not unusual in trend formation).

https://preview.redd.it/puc4slkk6xj31.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=69e219ba15beddd6bbc944898efa8bce74cd3c85
I am not a financial adviser, and can not tell you any trades you should be making to hedge portfolios or to take speculative positions. I've given these levels on the S&P500, and there are many things correlated to this you could use to protect portfolios. If this happens, I will be very much 'In the trenches'. I'll be trading in various markets every day and sharing some of my insights and trade plans, but I can't tell you specifically what to do.


I am only sharing this with you to let you know there are strategies people have used in the past to predict crashes, and I've used these strategies a lot and become good with them. They now predict a market crash starting in 2019, developing through 2020, and the things I've explained in this post would be the next steps if the prediction is accurate.
If the next steps happen, the strategy would then forecast the S&P500 to go from 2,200 - 2,400 sort of range to 1,000.
I am asking no one to take this seriously at the moment, but I would suggest if the market makes moves similar to what I've described - you then consider there may be a lot of merit to what it further forecasts. Things could look very different from how they do this weekend in a few weekends time.
submitted by whatthefx to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Has anyone tried Forex robot trading?

What Is a Forex Robot?
These days, it is becoming more and more common for traders to utilize modern methods of technology in their trading and there are many advantages to doing so.
Traders are increasingly likely to use trading systems or software that allows them to automate the trading process — thus reducing the problems of emotional attachment to a trade or a lack of trading discipline. A Forex robot does exactly that and one of the most popular ways to use one is via the MetaTrader 4 platform.
The MetaTrader 4 platform offers a complete solution to a trader’s needs, consisting of charts, news feeds, and more. And, by coding in the native MQL4 programming language, it is also possible to write custom built indicators or even trading strategies — also known as expert advisors.
Free Ex4 to Mq4 decompiler!! Top EA List: https://best-forex-trading-robots.com/
Expert Advisors
An expert advisor (EA) is another name for a Forex robot, one that has been developed to be used on the MetaTrader 4 platform. Since it can be custom built, an expert advisor can be designed to implement any trading strategy or risk management system so long as the designer knows how to code it into the program.
For example, a trader may design an EA to open positions in the market at a certain size after a moving average crossover.
Has anyone tried Forex robot trading? Best-forex-robots
Benefits
The main advantage of using a Forex robot is that it takes the emotion out of trading, which if not addressed, can be a big barrier to many traders. Fear, greed, and stress can build up in manual trading all too easily, leading a trader to lose money and get frustrated with the game.
A robot on the other hand, will implement the chosen strategy flawlessly every time and with a high degree of accuracy. It will also make difficult risk management calculations in the blink of an eye, much faster than a human trader. Not only that, but robots can be designed to trade around the clock and on different markets at once, meaning that you need not have to sit in front of your screen all day and all night.
In short, a Forex robot can take much of the hard work out of trading — that hard work is done beforehand — developing and testing the trading idea.
Limitations
Of course, there are no shortcuts to making money on the Forex markets and working with a Forex robot brings with it its own inherent limitations.
For one thing, Forex markets are fiercely competitive and coming up with a robot that is able to beat the market is a notoriously difficult thing to do.
Indeed, it is not enough to design a robot that works over a couple of weeks data, the robot must work over several months, if not years, of historical data and undergo rigorous statistical testing to prove that it works. Because if a trader cannot be confident that the robot works, they will more than likely abandon it when times get tough.
submitted by Rongpure1 to u/Rongpure1 [link] [comments]

I've reproduced 130+ research papers about "predicting bitcoin", coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here's what I've learnt.

ok, so firstly,
all of the papers I found through Google search and Google scholar. Google scholar doesn't actually have every research paper so you need to use both together to find them all. They were all found by using phrases like "predict bitcoin" or "predict stock market" or "predict forex" and terms related to those.

Next,
I only tested papers written in the past 8 years or so, I think anything older is just going to be heavily Alpha-mined so we can probably just ignore those ones altogether.

Then,
Anything where it's slightly ambiguous with methodology, I tried every possible permutation to try and capture what the authors may have meant. For example, one paper adds engineered features to the price then says "then we ran the data through our model" - it's not clear if it means the original data or the engineered data, so I tried both ways. This happens more than you'd think!

THEN,
Anything that didn't work, I tried my own ideas with the data they were using or substituted one of their models with others that I knew of.

Now before we go any further, I should caveat that I was a profitable trader at multiple Tier-1 US banks so I can say with confidence that I made a decent attempt of building whatever the author was trying to get at.

Oh, and one more thing. All of this work took about 7 months in total.

Right, let's jump in.

So with the papers, I found as many as I could, then I read through them and put them in categories and then tested each category at a time because a lot of papers were kinda saying the same things.

Here are the categories:

Results:
Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected (I guess ultimately they're all the same thing but still) OR a few may have had a smidge of Alpha but as soon as you add transaction costs it all disappears.

Every author that's been publicly challenged about the results of their paper says it's stopped working due to "Alpha decay" because they made their methodology public. The easiest way to test whether it was truly Alpha decay or just overfitting by the authors is just to reproduce the paper then go further back in time instead of further forwards. For the papers that I could reproduce, all of them failed regardless of whether you go back or forwards. :)

Now, results from the two most popular categories were:

The most frustrating paper:
I have true hate for the authors of this paper: "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory". Probably the most complex AND vague in terms of methodology and after weeks trying to reproduce their results (and failing) I figured out that they were leaking future data into their training set (this also happens more than you'd think).

The two positive take-aways that I did find from all of this research are:
  1. Almost every instrument is mean-reverting on short timelines and trending on longer timelines. This has held true across most of the data that I tested. Putting this information into a strategy would be rather easy and straightforward (although you have no guarantee that it'll continue to work in future).
  2. When we were in the depths of the great recession, almost every signal was bearish (seeking alpha contributors, news, google trends). If this holds in the next recession, just using this data alone would give you a strategy that vastly outperforms the index across long time periods.

Hopefully if anyone is getting into this space this will save you an absolute tonne of time and effort.

So in conclusion, if you're building trading strategies, simple is good :)

Also one other thing I'd like to add, even the Godfather of value investing, the late Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) used to test his strategies (even though he'd be trading manually) so literally every investor needs to backtest regardless of if you're day-trading or long-term investing or building trading algorithms.


EDIT: in case anyone wants to read more from me I occasionally write on medium (even though I'm not a good writer)
submitted by chiefkul to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I'm begging Reddit for help, real ACTUAL help. I'm dead in 10 hours. Let's see what Reddit(ers) can do.

As title says, I'm dead. This is a final notification from this reddit here: https://www.reddit.com/SuicideWatch/comments/f5sajn/suicide_is_not_selfish_depending_on_circumstance/ I deleted the original post so just get the context there. But to briefly summarize, I'm 26, US american studying abroad in Asia. It's easy to pay for college when the USD currency is stronger so that's that. My parents, my loving parents supported me for four years so I can graduate. I will not be graduating. Unknown to them, I've been keeping them as well as my wife and child in the dark. In the 2nd year of my course I failed miserably. I was contemplating suicide right then and there after I found out. Silly me of course thought that I could put if off, perhaps leverage my situation by making myself financially self-sufficient so I dabbed in the forex market for two years with great hopes. Failed. Technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price action, chart and candlestick patterns were worthless. I spent the last past weeks studying a special FX tool that could be considered a black-box but I no longer have time to confirm it. I'm out of time, more on that later. Tomorrow my parents find out if I graduate or not, obviously not.
So reddit title says it all as well as my previous post. Tonight I'm going to be drinking heavily, then put a bag over my head and that's that. Why I'm killing myself? Because I lied, I caused pain, misery. My parents fought tooth and nail, sent money to me through sweat and blood for me to graduate, get my diploma and start my life with my family but I failed them. They've complained more than once that times aren't getting easier, so me being alive doesn't change any of that. But that's not all. Two years dabbing in the most prestigious "profitable" market has failed me time and time again. Only now do I realize that the rabbit hole in the market goes much deeper than silly little charts. If I had more time, I'd be able to reap massive profits in such a short time span. To give you an idea, I took a $5k demo account and turned it into $27k in 6 days worth of trading. Not bad. I needed further study but it's no longer an option for me. I've costed my parents $40k and they lost 4 years of their life, their fragile life, time and money that they're never going to get back. So if I were you and you were reading this, I would refrain from posting anything along the lines of "Oh, it's okay. Tough love. Failure you is better than no you at all. Think about your daughter." Your comment will just get shrugged off like yesterday's news. I need real help redditors and I promise to pay you back even double what it is you spend but I need real help.
So I need a ticket back to the US and a job, one that at least pays min. $30k/yr and most likely a place to stay. If I can have that, all will be good. I'll be off my parent's budget so no more strain to them, I'll be able to take care of my family. It won't bring back those wasted 4 years, but at the least I'll be alive to do what a father must. Other option, I could "sell" this FX tool. This tool isn't downloadable anywhere on the internet anymore. I'm not the programmer but I made contact with the programmer and it's now receiving quotes via FIX api meaning no fake broker feeds, you're getting the real aggregate feed. There's three anomalies I've documented that pinpoints when and where a turning point in the market happens, only for the 28 major currency pairs. Last option, I die. Well, let's see what Reddit(ers) will say in the next 10 hours. This'll be interesting. And for all intents and purposes, if I don't reply back after the allotted 10 hours I'm obviously dead. I'll keep this post up as a reminder to ALL who ask for help on Reddit whether or not someone will or can help you. I'll be online until then. Post's up.

P.S. Why suicide of all things? Because it's for atonement. It may not be atonement in your eyes, in my parent's eyes, in my wife's eyes, in my daughter's eyes, but it's more than atonement for me, so that's all that matters.
submitted by forex_end_game to SuicideWatch [link] [comments]

Noob Safe Haven Thread | Oct 14-20 2019

Post any options questions you wanted to ask, but were afraid to ask. A weekly thread in which questions will be received with equanimity. There are no stupid questions, only dumb answers.   Fire away. This is a weekly rotation with past threads linked below. This project succeeds thanks to people thoughtfully sharing their knowledge and experiences (YOU are invited to respond to questions posted here.)
Perhaps you're looking for an item in the frequent answers list below.
For a useful response about a particular option trade, disclose position details, so that responders can assist. Vague inquires receive vague responses. Tell us: TICKER -- Put or Call -- strike price (for each leg, on spreads) -- expiration date -- cost of option entry -- date of option entry -- underlying stock price at entry -- current option (spread) market value -- current underlying stock price -- your rationale for entering the position.   .
Key informational links: • Glossary • List of Recommended Books • Introduction to Options (The Options Playbook) • The complete side-bar informational links, for mobile app users.

Links to the most frequent answers

I just made (or lost) $____. Should I close the trade? Yes, close the trade, because you had no plan for an exit to limit your risk. Your trade is a prediction: a plan directs action upon an (in)validated prediction. Take the gain (or loss). End the risk of losing the gain (or increasing the loss). Plan the exit before the start of each trade, for both a gain, and maximum loss. • Exit-first trade planning, and using a risk-reduction trade checklist (Redtexture)
Why did my options lose value, when the stock price went in a favorable direction? • Options extrinsic and intrinsic value, an introduction (Redtexture)
Getting started in options • Calls and puts, long and short, an introduction (Redtexture) • Exercise & Assignment - A Guide (ScottishTrader) • Some useful educational links • Some introductory trading guidance, with educational links • Options Expiration & Assignment (Option Alpha) • Expiration time and date (Investopedia)
Common mistakes and useful advice for new options traders • Five mistakes to avoid when trading options (Options Playbook) • Top 10 Mistakes Beginner Option Traders Make (Ally Bank) • One year into options trading: lessons learned (whitethunder9) • Here's some cold hard words from a professional trader (magik_moose) • Thoughts after trading for 7 Years (invcht2) • Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance (Farnum Street Blog) • 20 Habits of Highly Successful Traders (Viper Report) (40 minutes) • There's a bull market somewhere (Jason Leavitt) (3 minutes)
Trade planning, risk reduction and trade size, etc. • Exit-first trade planning, and using a risk-reduction trade checklist (Redtexture) • Trade Checklists and Guides (Option Alpha) • An illustration of planning on trades failing. (John Carter) (at 90 seconds) • Trade Simulator Tool (Radioactive Trading) • Risk of Ruin (Better System Trader)
Minimizing Bid-Ask Spreads (high-volume options are best) • Fishing for a price: price discovery with (wide) bid-ask spreads (Redtexture) • List of option activity by underlying (Market Chameleon) • List of option activity by underlying (Barchart) • Open Interest by ticker (optinistics)
Closing out a trade • Most options positions are closed before expiration (Options Playbook) • When to Exit Guide (Option Alpha) • Risk to reward ratios change over the life of a position: a reason for early exit (Redtexture)
Options Greeks and Option Chains • An Introduction to Options Greeks (Options Playbook) • Options Greeks (Epsilon Options) • Theta Decay: The Ultimate Guide (Chris Butler - Project Option) • Theta decay rates differ: At the money vs. away from the money • Theta: A Detailed Look at the Decay of Option Time Value (James Toll) • Gamma Risk Explained - (Gavin McMaster - Options Trading IQ) • How Often Within Expected Move? Data Science and Implied Volatility (Michael Rechenthin, PhD - TastyTrade 2017) • A selected list of option chain & option data websites
Selected Trade Positions & Management • The Wheel Strategy (ScottishTrader) • Rolling Short (Credit) Spreads (Options Playbook) • Rolling Short (Credit) Spreads (Redtexture) • Synthetic option positions: Why and how they are used (Fidelity) • Covered Calls Tutorial (Option Investor) • Covered Calls - Chris Butler - Project Option (20 minutes) • The 10 Most Common Mistakes Made by Covered Call Writers - Allen Ellman - Blue Caller Investor (8 minutes) • Take the loss (here's why) (Clay Trader) (15 minutes) • The diagonal calendar spread and "poor man's covered call" (Redtexture) • Creative Ways to Avoid The Pattern Day Trader Rule (Sean McLaughlin) • Short calls and puts, and dividend risk (Redtexture) • Options and Dividend Risk (Sage Anderson, TastyTrade) • Options contract adjustments: what you should know (Fidelity) • Options contract adjustment announcements / memoranda (Options Clearing Corporation)
Implied Volatility, IV Rank, and IV Percentile (of days) • An introduction to Implied Volatility (Khan Academy) • An introduction to Black Scholes formula (Khan Academy) • IV Rank vs. IV Percentile: Which is better? (Project Option) • IV Rank vs. IV Percentile in Trading (Tasty Trade) (video)
Miscellaneous: Economic Calendars, International Brokers, RobinHood, Pattern Day Trader, CBOE Exchange Rules, Contract Specifications, TDA Margin Handbook, EU Regulations on US ETFs, US Taxes and Options • Selected calendars of economic reports and events • An incomplete list of international brokers dealing in US options markets (Redtexture) • Free brokerages can be very costly: Why option traders should not use RobinHood • Pattern Day Trader status and $25,000 margin account balances (FINRA) • How to find out when a new expiration is opening up: email: [email protected] for the status of a particular ticker's new expirations.
• CBOE Contract Specifications and Trading Days & Hours • TDAmeritrade Margin Handbook (18 pages PDF) • Monthly expirations of Index options are settled on next day prices • PRIIPS, KIPs, EU regulations, ETFs, Options, Brokers • Key Information Documents (KIDs) for European Citizens (Options Clearing Corporation) • Taxes and Investing (Options Industry Council) (PDF) • CBOE Exchange Rules (770+ pages, PDF) • NASDAQ Options Exchange Rules
Following week's Noob thread: Oct 21-27 2019
Previous weeks' Noob threads:
Oct 7-13 2019 Sept 30 - Oct 6 2019
Sept 23-29 2019 Sept 16-22 2019 Sept 09-15 2019 Sept 02-09 2019 Aug 26 - Sept 02 2019
Complete NOOB archive, 2018, and 2019
submitted by redtexture to options [link] [comments]

Forex Education  Finance Feeds Live Forex Analysis - How to Make your Forex Trading ... What Is The Best News Feed For Trading Equities? The Greatest Guide To Forex Currency Pairs Market Data ... Live Forex Market Analysis [My view on the markets] Forex Trading Strategie + 878 EUR in 2 Stunden

Follow our real-time news feed for live forex news and top stories in the global financial markets. View news alerts, trending tweets, expert analysis and insights. Forex Today: Dollar remains strong, US coronavirus-related news may weigh GBP/USD finds support at 1.3190 to regain the 1.3200 level USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls run to supply territory to cap ... Forex News and Market Analysis. FX News Feed. News Feed. Bullish Bias Underpins Crude Oil Prices – Risk on Sentiment in Play! Thursday, November 12, 2020 By Arslan Butt, Index & Commodity Analyst The [[WTI]] crude oil is supported but it failed to extend its previous day bullish rally and stay depressed around 41.40 level as the next Full Article. Covid-19. Forex. US Dollar. 1 hour. List of ... Currency strategists discuss how forex news & forex rumors can affect forex trade & currency exchange rates and how they contribute to the general forex market trend. Get the latest forex news & stay tuned for the more updates of the forex trading, forex brokers, market & many more at CapitalBay.News. Real-time forex news and the latest trading updates. What you need to know now about the GBP, Dollar, Yen, Euro and minors. Hier finden Sie Live-Meldungen in Echtzeit zu den wichtigsten Märkten. Über die Echtzeitnachrichten hinaus erhalten Sie Analysen und andere Markteinsichten.

[index] [23680] [11366] [22577] [22136] [8346] [16418] [17107] [11474] [26861] [16810]

Forex Education Finance Feeds

Natürlich gibt es auch kostenlose Feeds wie Guidants, doch hier gibt es keine Squawkbox und es kann ein paar Sekunden länger dauern, bis die News veröffentlicht werden. Live Forex Analysis. FREE Course Reveals How To Start Making Money Trading Forex Even If You Are A Beginner With Limited Experience. https://vintageducation.... CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFO: https://rebrand.ly/forex33 And start earning in the Forex Market Now! In our expanding international corporate environment, there a... A Live Forex News Feed That's Free! - Duration: 3:14. AuthenticFX 4,924 views. 3:14. 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula - Beat The Market Maker📈 - Duration: 37:53. TRADE ATS 1,119,712 views. 37 ... So the terminal covers all news around the market that can potentially move the markets or whether that is something that is happening in equities, whether it's something happening in bonds ... My name is Israel & our website “https://www.vintageducation.com ” was created to help you make money trading the Forex markets consistently. By showing you how to exactly trade for big ... FOREX.com is a global leader in forex and CFD trading for individuals worldwide. FOREX.com is a division of GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: GCAP), a globa...

http://binary-optiontrade.phosete.tk